tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 11, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
♪ vonnie: we will take you from new york to london to las vegas in the next hour. the magic well in kingdom. shares of disney tumbling after the company listed earnings estimates for the first time in five years. those results raising concerns about broadcast and cable, which is losing to online media. mark: in the last sale for brazil president dilma rousseff. the country is debating right now on a crucial vote that could force or out of office and into impeachment. but does it mean for the vice president and his country's economic future? vonnie: and a bloomberg exclusive, we talk with the cofounder, david rubenstein. this is coming from the salt conference in las vegas.
we talked about the debates on the markets. let's go straight to the market desk where matt miller has the latest. matt: we are a half hour in and down across the board. check out the major indexes, a little half percent of the dow jones, more than 100 points the drop. yesterday we had the best performance from the major equity indexes in two months. this is a little bit of a reverse bound. 2075.wn 0.4%, if you look at the map, and i have it in the bloomberg terminal, you can see nine out of 10 industry groups are down right now. the only gainer and really unchanged, consumer -- mark: it is on my touchscreen actually. matt: bismarck talking to me? turn off your microphone. consumer discretionary, the biggest losers.
let me tell you what happened at disney. disney mr. earnings for the first time in -- missed earnings for the first time in five years, the first in 20 quarters. earnings down, real concern about retailers, espn earnings and revenue. actually espn earnings up a little bit because they cut act on what they paid for programming, but the revenue and cord cutting is a concern. as far as retailers, we see macy's, cap, target, all down. here you see them making, feeding on estimates, but missing on revenue. downgraded to junk on concerns it cannot compete in turnaround for get a foot in the door. and then target coming down as well. all the same concerns, problems with retail affecting the market
. now mark, now you can talk. mark: thank you. have a look. one industry group's trading high today, and it is basically this. interesting comments from glencore earlier, forecasting demand to exceed supply for the industrial metals. supply is having decline for three years. all but one industry group is trading lower today. ,nother busy day for earnings the world's fourth biggest sales thatrted disappointed investors. they had a gloomy outlook for eastern europe and asia. they missed estimates in asia and western europe, offset eight 10 point rebound. this is an ugly charge, showing the big for brewers have fared few years.st
ab inbev down 2.5%. carlsberg flat on the year. 18.2%.er up busy day for er today the german utility. they are rising stronger than estimated 30% after a one-time adjustment natural gas project -- contract. this was a two-year inflation process in march that enabled e.on to cancel some things recorded in early years. these are the two big utilities in germany in the last 12 months, e.on shares have been at 43%. rwe has lost half of their value. that is some big fall, and let's finish off with jc?. ballat that decline, the since 2009. the french advertising company
given first quarter update after the market closed yesterday. they see the strong first quarter with organic revenue, but it was the second quarter that was weekend. this sent shares lower. i will show you what is happening in the lovely and i brexit function. -- ni brexit function. this is with the exchequer is saying, testifying before the upcoming referendum. the treasury released a report saying how much the u.k. economy is going to be affected by a referendum if we do vote to leave the eu. osborne says all u.k. allies are supporting the brexit acuity warning. many saying the brexit would be , capitalecurity investment would be canceled if the u.k. leaves the eu. we will continue to go in and
out of this big afternoon for the chancellor ahead of the referendum on june 23. vonnie: and we are looking at the bank of england tomorrow. taylor has more from the newsroom. baghdad, a car exploded in a crowded outdoor market in a mostly shiite neighborhood. at least 63 people were killed and 85 wounded. the islamic state has claimed responsibility. they take -- frequently target shiites in iraq. and today may be the last day for dilma rousseff three they vote today whether to impeach her for using state banks to vilify the gap. -- she may step down temporarily. it appears she is unlikely to survive bernie sanders is not making it easy for hillary clinton. he won a presidential primary in west virginia and will keep battling. bernie sanders: it appears we
won a big victory in west virginia. and with your help, we are going to win in oregon next week. clinton has a big lead in delegates. she is closing in on the number she needs for the nomination. and the presumptive nominee donald trump in west virginia and nebraska, he faced voters in first time since ted cruz dropped out. news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. vonnie: let's go to las vegas where the sky bridge alternative conference is underway. interview with rubenstein. reporter: thank you. i am here with david rubenstein. good morning. >> my pleasure to be here. reporter: i can't decide whether to begin with hedge funds or
donald trump. i believe that choice to you. >> what you think makes the most sense? >> let's start with donald trump. on carlisle's first quarter conference call you seemed qui positive about the economy relative to where you had been three months earlier. he seemed positive about market , and i am wondering if you think that a trump president -- first of all, is a possibility? david rubenstein: when i was talked against ronald reagan. we said he was old and did not know the issues that well. he was too far to the right and did not have a clear message we thought would resonate with american people. we were wrong. you have to be careful what you wish for in politics. it would be difficult to say
either hillary or donald trump could not win. both have a good chance of winning, but it depends on voters in the midwest. know,for those who do not you are politically savvy, you work in washington. and ink on capitol hill the white house, and in previous white house is. the electoral map suggests otherwise, right? people counting the electoral , what anumbers conclusion that hillary clinton is going to win decisively. david rubenstein: that is based on this, it is not impossible. if you go to the last six elections, and hillary clinton would win the same states, she two word 40 electoral votes. if she had the states that went democratic the last five out of seven, she would have a little short. but altra may be able to get votes in the midwest, the reagan votes.
but she had an electoral map advantage and also the minority vote is increasing. when john kennedy ran in 1960, 90 2% were white contagions -- caucasians. on the other side this factor. since world war ii we have had six times were a president .erved two consecutive terms and then using the party switch to the next time. the only time was with george walker bush. turn george herbert walker bush. maybe the country has become more conservative, or republican. it is early to say. when you say either hillary or donald trump could win the nomination, are you suggesting the odds are 50-50? david rubenstein: i would not say that. you have to give it to hillary clinton because of the map.
most people would say that. but anyone that says it is impossible for donald trump is making a mistake. for people with hillary clinton, they will agree. it will be a hard-fought campaign. you have to consider what trump would mean for the economy, the fiscal and monetary policies, and the impact on the portfolio. david rubenstein: it is too early to say. but exactly trump would do as president or hillary. said a few things, but it is hard to be on target when you are making policy. whoever is president, we will have a low growth pete king of ofe -- low growth period time. the last recession ended in june 2009. usually you have seven years between recessions. it could go eight years. it is not usually 10 or 11 years.
in the first term, we will hasn't been close to a recession -- we will have something close to a recession. eric: and it would not matter who is president. david rubenstein: immediately they can make a big difference. for example the, the federal reserve will increase interest rates this year, and that will be independent of whoever the president is. eric: let's talk about hedge funds. carlisle had its share of challenges. there is blanks at this conference, given the hedge funds. have you been able to sample that? david rubenstein: sure. eric: the standalone, as you know, talked about killing fields in the hedge fund industry. david rubenstein: the hedge fund industry is gigantic, $1.3 trillion. modest now to this gigantic industry.
it is about the same size as private equities. people are investing because they want higher rates of return and lowinterest rates public equity returns. people think you can get better rates of return with hedge funds . some have had problems like the macro funds. people willnk realize you have very smart people, highly motivated investing their own money it with investors, and it will be likely over a longer period of time. eric: is it too much chasing this opportunity? david rubenstein: a lot of the money is outside the united states. $3 trillion is not what it was 10 or 20 years ago. it does seem like a lot but not compared to the total size of money under management. you have $75 trillion in assets in management around the world, so $3 trillion is not that big. in general, the global market strategies business includes a number of things similar to but not the same as hedge funds.
it is that the results you would like. committed to hedge funds and global market strategy today as you have been in the past? david rubenstein: we are committed to what our investors want us to do. they think we have the capacity to do these things, so while we have had trouble, we are very committed. we think we have the ability and intelligence, intellectual information from around the world. we own about 200 companies around the world. have a good sense of the economy . while hedge fund people are walled off from the other firms, i think we have the benefit in our firm. we have the ability to get good rates of return. we have for many years with many different funds. eric: but lately not so much. david rubenstein: it has been good in private equities. not so much and hedge funds. if you have one or two quarters
that are bad and you go home, you will not likely be a dedicated investor. all investors have challenges. eric: your shutdown businesses not regenerating returns. david rubenstein: we thought that business was not likely to grow, and the industry is not likely to grow. if you are in business, you start businesses, some will work out. if you are afraid to shut something down, you will be shut out from starting anything. some work very well, some will not. had a preview to what the other funds we are experiencing with redemption. are you surprised with what we see? the scale of redemptions and the losses hedge funds experienced? david rubenstein: the last five quarters, we have seen more withdrawals. so there has in money taken out, but this has happened before. the industry will five again. i cannot say i am surprised, but
i am surprised so many macro people got it wrong. many of them will probably do well in the future. eric: outside of the four main in carlisle runs, have you talked about diversification into other things for profit? david rubenstein: we have a number of businesses we are considering adding to the firm. i do not want to advertise in your right now, but we do think we can do it. we can attract people who can manage funds very well. we do have value. we will continue to grow in different areas. talk about a principle, what kinds of things make sense being added to carlisle? david rubenstein: right now, there is no gigantic infrastructure business among the realogy firm. they have hedge funds, buyout
them that the dominant infrastructure. it may be possible to build a good in for structure business. it might be easier to build than by. findvidence for fracture -- we have an infrastructure fund. many people think it will be attractive in the next couple of years. eric: i want to ask you about energy. your fellow co-ceo described in the first quarter conference call as particularly compelling. what are you waiting for? david rubenstein: we are investing, and prices are down and relatively low. they will come back. oil prices will come back, but we do not know when. carbon is a good way to invest in. demand is great and is global. prices have been unyielding to press. when the cycle comes back, we'll
,ee this appreciation in assets and we hope to buy things and relatively lower prices. eric: do you regret not buying them earlier? david rubenstein: hindsight is always 2020. we have bought a few number of things we are happy with. eric: how soon will you spend this? david rubenstein: it is to invest. over the next two years we will invest it and we have a few years. we are doing some now. equity,u like private energy, the to stretch the control, lending, ent, downstream? david rubenstein: it is like asking which of my children i like the best. i like all of these businesses. right now distress energy is attractive because it was a lot of credit. distress depth will be attractive as well. and the ent market will thrive.
you can buy assets cheaper than they will be in a couple of years. eric: an oil will go up? david rubenstein: somewhere in $70 range that year. some point next year. will notroduction increase, and demand will increase. what is your view on brazil with duma rousseff? she is expected to lose the process, and it be impeached. he went immediately remove her from power. days,rubenstein: four 180 i think it is, and then she can come back. we are a very large investor in brazil, have a lot of investments. we think the economy has challenged, currency is down more than 50% against the dollar. it is the biggest recession in 80 years. he will not get worse. i do not think it can get worse.
eric: even if they shut down all of the investigations into corruption? worst ofenstein: the been occurring, so the trend will be positive. many people feel that has been a challenging time, but it will get better. eric: thank you for taking some time out of your schedule here at salt. david rubenstein, the code chief executive officer of carlyle group. vonnie: stay tuned for the sky result conference. we have the oil tycoon boone pickens at 2:30 in london. w york. slow, hurting macy's. the forecast for the year hoping first quarter sales have missed estimates. they are closing under some stores, offering more discounts
three of prolonged oil slump is leading to a jump in the language is and state reliance on the energy sector. jump dakota leads with 67% in series to link with these. west virginia and texas and oklahoma have also seen the jump. and lawmakers looking to bring relief to flyers. senators are urging airlines to drop back during the busy travel season. they say this will reduce long airport security lines. but others say it is misguided. and that is the bloomberg business flash. going ahead deals, market of reaction. ♪
you are watching bloomberg markets." matt miller is looking at early movers. is really feeling the pain, the entire retail high street really feeling the pain. take a look at macy's here. macy's, the sales beat earnings, but is concerned about foot traffic because herald square gets more visitors than disney world. all applies to macy's. michael cores, ralph lauren, all getting hit as macy's does as well. another company that sells to people, fossil. they missed on everything, sales, profit. cutting outlook for the year, partly due to low sales of
fitness watches. some people are saying on competition from apple, competition from votto, but apple is the sexiest story. votto is getting decimated. week --iper, war on more on weak environment, and worrying about the first quarter eps. they are due on may 19. gap is out on may 19 as well. you can see ross is down. , acrossurban outfitters the retail sector, big losses. that is the problem. speaking of retail but not necessarily in the closing side, staples and office depot, a judge said you cannot get together. that would create a monopoly on paper, pens, and ink. that would create 600 stories
over the last two years on competition with the place you probably do by your paper and pens, which is amazon. they have cannibalized sales. but the judge says it does not matter, and he wants to put an official and to talk about this $6.3 billion merger. mark: still ahead, the end could be near for president dilma rousseff of brazil, the nation meeting right now. it is scheduled to vote on whether to force her into impeachment areas we go to sao paulo next. ♪
numbers. what have you got? not got a number just yet, but inventory has been rising. upheard the api number was for the market heading dissipated. looking for 80,000 barrel again. we have to see a drop of 3.4 million barrels. it looks like the department of u.s. crude energy inventory has fallen 3.4 million. we are looking for a rise. only 80,000, but a rise nonetheless. the to give a nice little pop to the imax crude. you can see that coming back up. there strong throughout morning, coming down into this number, and now we are rising $44.84 a barrel. expect to see that continue because we were set up for a gain in inventories, actually saw a drop. vonnie: thank you.
$44.89ow oil trading at a barrel. let's check in with bloomberg news. fromter: foreign ministers germany, russia, ukraine, and france discussed a proposal for elections in eastern ukraine. they hope to have a deal for the european union sanctions against russia to expire at the end of july. more than 493 people had been killed in the fighting in eastern ukraine in the last two years. in paris, protesters battled police during a demonstration over labor reform. president pushed through the lower house without a vote with special measures. making layoffsnd easier. they say will lower unemployment . more will increase the amount of money it spends. norway will increase
the amount of money it spends on oil. this 18 times as much as they had planned last october. and david cameron may have an awkward time when it comes to the leaders and nigeria and week.istan visiting this he told queen elizabeth did two countries are among the most corrupt in the world. the leaders are coming to london for an anticorruption summit. the incoming president of the philippines keeps changing his five and it comes to the u.s. and china. on one hand, he says it is open to cooperating with oil and gas exploration in the disputed south china sea. on the other hand he questioned why the u.s. had sent an air carrier challenge china as showed solidarity with the philippines. he may clarify his remarks to the campaign is over. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world.
mark: let's check out europe in every markets. we are falling for the first day in three. all gain in london. i will come to that. the stocks down 0.4%. let's get to industry groups. the only industry groups is metals and mining. it is up 2%, glencore forecasting demand to exceed supply for a number of industrial energy companies falling today. utilities down after e.on announced habitability today. investors are still concerned about how much they will find that exit from nuclear power. banks also lower, another bank in the news, abn amro from netherlands. the euro rising for the first day in seven against the dollar.
stirling is holding up against weaker forecast. industrial production data. the u.k. earlier falling for the longest and stressed since october. the bank of england meets tomorrow. we have a rate decision, quarterly inflation. it is super thursday. and the german 10 year yield is unchanged at 0.13%. the yield fell for the second consecutive day, longest since anywhere. latest doolittle has the live from the nasdaq in manhattan. it appears we have the nasdaq turning slightly positive after opening down. they are helping the index. electronic shares are up after the company be fiscal estimates. electronic arts had $.15 per share, lots of bullets reaction.
he said it was being driven by core areas like star wars. $110 per share, but it could climb higher by 35% from current levels. the reclaimed that long-term uptrend. mark: nice move in electronic arts. the nasdaq is lower. what is joining it down? you can see red and green, one of the worst is ross stores after piper jaffray cut .he rating from neutral they see a weakening. their concerns the stock could come under pressure if the company posts an underwhelming fiscal first-quarter results. this as they approach a two day moving average. it could be pretty bearish on
the trading history. mark: thank you. vonnie: thank you. house speaker paul ryan giving a news conference with the gop leadership right now. you are watching live fixtures. you can also see the terminal. ryan is seeking real unification of the republican party, similar to comments he already made. this follows donald trump's variouss yesterday in primaries. we are also watching out for meetings all day long, donald trump meeting with paul ryan and yesterday with mitch mcconnell. from the banks to the political turmoil in brazil, the senate is debating the fate of dilma rousseff. the brazilian senate is expected to vote on impeachment they did tonight, and the majority would send rousseff out of office to face trial. we have a reporter now from the bureau there.
it is 10:30 or so in the morning. do we have any results before this evening? reporter: unlikely. the senate started late. we are not expecting this to come in any sooner than 10:00 p.m. local time for the voting itself. commentshat kind of are we hearing? you are watching the proceedings live, but it looks like -- what is it look like it is happening with delma? reporter: it is a little call more than the lower house voting, which was catty. today it is calm. party leaders have already spoken. they are some defending dilma rousseff and others making the case for why she should be ousted. been interrupted for shouting or any reasons, so it is moving along. but it is a long day. they will break it up twice at least in the afternoon. mark: and if the vote goes
against rousseff, what happens next? she has to step down for the senate to do its investigation. that could be up to 180 days, six months. the vice president takes over as the acting president. mark: has the vice president said anything? if he takes over, he will have to name a cabinet, a finance minister. we have any idea how he will fill those positions? reporter: his cabinet is all over the local newspapers. the would-be finance minister is the former bank minister. there has been chatter of what he will do in terms of economic policy. he will cut 10 ministries from brazil. we have more than 30 at this point. no tax increases at this point. just trying to get a message of
austerity and getting the country back to growing. vonnie: he had david rubenstein saying that they will be back within 180 days. what is the likelihood she would be back in the timeframe for the impeachment to go ahead with your ,ulie: that is seen as very very unlikely. if she is removed, he comes back in the final trial. i have not really heard any investors considering the possibility, which would really be even more disruptive to brazil and the economy, just to get us moving forward. the reality is jumped 20% since january, what sort of movement in brazilian assets can we expect if the vote goes against rousseff? how much upside do investors, do strategists believe we've got from here? julie: there is a lot of
investors seeing the changes all priced in. this all have a lot of trouble when he actually comes into office and has to connect, congresshis fragmented or in most people say it is priced in, but you have optimist saying it will mark a shift in confidence and brazil's path. things can improve a lot from here. mark: thank you. all yours. vonnie: coming up on "bloomberg trump getcan donald paul ryan to endorse him? they have different ideas on how to do it. ♪
♪ mark: this is "bloomberg markets." ,ime for the business flash looking at the biggest stories in the news right now. chipotle is stocking up on itself. they are spending more on buybacks. they are trying to boost their stock prices, which have been battered by food safety crisis, but critics wonder if the money should be spent on new technology or remodeling the restaurants. the word just airlines cannot get enough jets. southwest airlines is on a shopping spree, buying 83 boeing 737's from around the world. some of them coming from russian airlines. they are reporting as many as two dozen used airlines, 319's from china.
two fuel has made the older, less efficient more plain economical to operate. companies have abandoned their merger. a federal judge agreed with transportation officials that opposed to the combination of staples and office depot. they say it was bad competition and leads to higher prices. bloombergur latest business flash. now, disney shares continue to fall today after disappointing earnings yesterday. the company posted the first estimates bad in five years. despite the rise in the film studio, they announced closing of the infinity game division. 's rich greenfield called for a selloff back in december. he holds a $97 price target and explains why on bloomberg go. >> no one should be investing on
the belief that movie success is sustainable. the reality is 50% comes from the cable network division, and the self rating was premised from the beginning on the belief media is flowing out. they will not be winners if that tied goes out. they either cut the cord or shave the cord or simply never to the multichannel bundle. that hurts everyone, and disney has the largest cost exposure in the industry. mark: was completely different offered by piper jaffray stan myers who said it was overweight at $120 by stag. a number of analysts do not price into this stock. >> we have a strong advertising market. we are heading into a robust front here in may. we have finding nemo, which frld be the next rosen --
ozen. we have the continuation of star wars going forward. we have shanghai opening up in june as well. a number of analysts should see this drive higher. mark: and in the conference call, bob iger said he is performing -- pursuing online streaming deals. switching to the u.s., of meeting in washington. house speaker paul ryan speak with donald trump. seeking real unification of the republican party. can that two actually found common ground? we bring in margaret from the d.c. bureau. mitch mcconnell is getting on the trumpet train. can paul ryan it on this? you have asked if they
can find common ground, and the only common ground that matters is their desire to beat the democratic nominee in the fall, which looks like it will be hillary clinton as the woman to beat despite last night's turnout. but paul ryan has been so clear, about his lack of enthusiasm and willingness at this point to endorse donald trump. the optics of it, prevent anything from happening. unity is what he is saying is the key. hillaryd to beat clinton. and on both parts, especially paul ryan, real desire to take her down the sense of chaos or down the sensep of chaos or division. vonnie: how granular will they get?
the overriding opposition is when the white house -- win the .hite house they are fundamentally different when it comes to free trade, national defense. reporter: absolutely, and when it comes to personality, approach, how to establish, how , diversity in the country, that sort of thing. one thing that speaker ryan is saying is that he does not know donald trump. he wants this meeting just to be a basic beginner sense with them to get to know each other. part of that comes from tamping down expectations and nothing to come out of seeing combine -- singing kumbayha. has a history of switching positions, saying one
thing one day and then clarifying it the next day that is really different from what he said the day before. part of it may be the house speaker trying to get around how he wants to play this privately and publicly. showed hise sanders staying power once again. it is frustrating for hillary clinton? no doubt she wants to prevent to donald trump, but she has to respect mr. sanders and his followers. how soon can she wrapped this race up? reporter: she has been trying to prevent for six weeks. weeks.t for six it doesn't help with advertising, rhetoric, time spent in state. west virginia has not been on the kind of general election target list for democrats for a couple of decades. honestly, in terms of what would she need in terms of the state that she could win.
but this is a twofold problem. it does force her to keep concentrating with oregon and california, either to try to win a couple more states or try to make them even. the bottom does not fall out. mathematically it is impossible for bernie sanders to top her. but if you go to pennsylvania, that could be a problem. mark: thank you. talking about the latest election in the u.s. ,o more reservations, new york the four seasons is closing. they will serve the last meal in july. the party is not over yet. that is next. ♪
process. they took $57.3 million. 1982 cabinet was estimated to go for $40 million. the seller paid five point million dollars. it was not a bad return. and the 1957 painting number 17 million.32.6 the eight foot tall canvas was estimated between $30 million and $40 million. auction signs sewing some signs of cooling. there talking about oil prices. so are you a rough person? vonnie: he would not even need to be over $100. mark: whatever is most expensive. on july 16, new york city will say goodbye to the four seasons restaurant after 57 years in this building. patients of the power lunch will have to seek refuge elsewhere.
the restaurant is offering saturday cooking classes to see a sneak peek behind the magic. we delivered at the four seasons, and it is really happiness are you people something can connect to. people have been coming back to the four seasons restaurant for over 50 years. >>. president that has not been here was actually richard nixon. i really do not understand why, but i think the first president was john f. kennedy. ever since then, every president has come multiple times. restaurant's famed grill room serves dishes up to $37 a plate. but come july 16, the home of the power lunch will be shuttered. people, theyempty are not happy by the fact the lease was not renewed.
a lot of very upset, but there is nothing we can do. we have to move forward. reporter: with just two months for aor the farewell, and special goodbye, patrons can pay $260 a head for a glimpse kind of the magic. saturdays, the four seasons is hosting cooking classes. over three hours, guests can shock oysters, make sauces for the christmas farmhouse alledge, and prepare food, all while taking lots of wine. >> it is fun for anyone to go to the back of a kitchen, especially the four seasons restaurant. reporter: and guests enjoy the spoils of their labor. >> this is a double magnum. >> wow. >> my champagne will go all the
way up. >> wow. reporter: the four seasons hope this will push patrons the next on loan application. -- unknown location. bloomberg'syou to kelly right there. we focus on italy as the u.n. sees the struggling with mountains of debt in the banking sector. interviews with the finance minister of italy. and we go to the salt conference in las vegas for an interview with 400 capital management founder and cio. ♪
you are watching the european close on bloomberg markets. we are going to take you from new york to london to las vegas in the next hour. here is what we are watching. stocks lower in europe and the u.s.. the s&p 500 retreating for the first time in five days. european equity sliding. today's bank rescue fund might be expanding the amount of funds available. we hear from the italian finance minister pier carlo padoan. softenan it